What this dashboard is
A live model of Shinjo's unit economics. Shinjo is non-custodial, built on top of PoolTogether V5 and yo.xyz vaults. Yield data is pulled from DeFi Llama. Adjust the period, composition, and deposit size below to stress-test the model yourself.
A reminder: Shinjo is a no-loss lottery. Save assets, win optionality. A game to 'get ahead' that doesn't punish players.
yoETH
5.21%
Organic APR
yoUSD
5.53%
Organic APR
yoBTC
1.95%
Organic APR
yoEUR
3.50%
Organic APR
Organic Blended Yield
4.48%
40 ETH / 30 USD / 20 BTC / 10 EUR · Ceiling: 3.11%
Quarterly GP at $100M TVL
$258K
Near-term target
Quarterly GP at $1B TVL
$3M
Growth milestone
GP at Premium Bonds Scale
$335M
UK Premium Bonds hold ~$130B AUM
The Flywheel
The flywheel is self-reinforcing: bigger prizes attract depositors, deposits grow TVL, TVL generates yield, yield funds bigger prizes. Token incentives and points campaigns bootstrap the early loop, creating depositor demand before organic yield alone sustains headline prizes. As TVL grows, token demand grows reflexively with it, compounding the cycle.
Market Sizing
Market Opportunity
Shinjo operates at the intersection of global lotteries ($346B), prize-linked savings ($200B+), and DeFi yield ($130B+ TVL). Over $1.55T in crypto sits idle: unstaked ETH and BTC earning nothing. The UK's Premium Bonds proved prize-linked savings at $170B scale from a single country. Crypto's higher yields, global reach, and permissionless access make the addressable market structurally larger.
TAM · Total Addressable Market
$144B
TVL|~$1.0B
revenueGlobal OG crypto holders × avg deposit
Validated: UK Premium Bonds = $170B alone
SAM · Serviceable Addressable Market
$12B
TVL|~$84M
revenueDeFi-active holders reachable on-chain
~1.5M users × $8K avg deposit
SOM · Serviceable Obtainable Market
$500M
TVL|~$3.5M
revenueRealistic 3yr capture with token launch
+ multi-chain + BTC vaults (by 2029)
Market Comparables
UK Premium Bonds
$170B
22M holders, single country, ~4% yield
Global Lottery Market
$346B
4.4% CAGR, online growing 9.6%
Idle Crypto (ETH+BTC)
$1.55T
75% ETH + 99.7% BTC unstaked
DeFi Yield / Savings
$85B+
36.5% of DeFi TVL, 46% CAGR
Methodology & Key Assumptions
Top-Down
- Global lottery market: $346B (2026E, Grand View Research)
- Global PLS deposits: $200B+ (Premium Bonds = $170B alone)
- DeFi yield/savings: $85B+ TVL (36.5% of $130B+ DeFi TVL)
- Idle crypto assets: $1.55T (75% ETH + 99.7% BTC unstaked)
Bottom-Up
- 18M OG crypto holders (3% of 600M global users, held 2+ yrs)
- Average deposit: $8,000 per user
- DeFi yield: 5–10% (Aave/Morpho current rates)
- Protocol take rate: 10% of yield generated
Sources: Grand View Research (Lottery Market 2026), NS&I (Premium Bonds 2025), Mordor Intelligence (DeFi Market), CoinLaw (ETH/BTC staking stats), a16z (State of Crypto 2025), DefiLlama (TVL data).
Model
Historical Period:
Composition Simulator: AUM vs Quarterly Grand Prize
Scenarios
AUM Range (X-axis)
Asset Mix
100%Sliders capped at available supply vs AUM range
Blended Yield
3.11%
Period avg, weighted by composition
Depositor View: Win Probability & Expected Value
Deposit Size
Total TVL
Expected Annual Prize Income
$290
≈ 2.90% APY equivalent
Avg Days Between Any Win
~5.3 weeks
Grand Prize Chance (1 Year)
1 in 12.5K
Blended Yield (from data)
3.11%
| Tier | Prize Value | Prizes / Draw | Your Win Odds / Draw | Expected Wins / Year | Avg Wait | Expected Annual $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Prize | $895K | 1 / ~91 draws | 1 in 4.5M | < 0.01 | ~12465.8 years | $72 |
| Tier 1 | $2K | 4 | 1 in 12.5K | 0.03 | ~34.2 years | $71 |
| Tier 2 | $608 | 16 | 1 in 3.1K | 0.12 | ~8.6 years | $71 |
| Tier 3 | $152 | 64 | 1 in 782 | 0.47 | ~2.1 years | $71 |
| Total Expected Annual | $290 | |||||
EV is deterministic: every depositor earns their pro-rata share of yield minus the ~6.8% reserve. The game is entirely about the distribution of outcomes. Small depositors win less often but can still hit the grand prize; large depositors win frequently at lower tiers. Canary tiers (4–5) omitted for clarity.
▶TVL Required for Grand Prize
TVL Required for Grand Prize: PT V5 Base Params
| Grand Prize | Stables (Aave) | Stables (sUSDe) | Stables (Incentive) | ETH + Derivatives on Aave | BTC (Aave Only) | BTC (LBTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100K | $47M | $49M | $9M | $65M | $14.35B | $428M |
| $250K | $118M | $123M | $22M | $162M | $35.87B | $1.07B |
| $500K | $236M | $246M | $43M | $324M | $71.74B | $2.14B |
| $1M | $473M | $493M | $87M | $648M | $143.48B | $4.28B |
| $5M | $2.36B | $2.46B | $434M | $3.24B | $717.39B | $21.40B |
PT V5 Parameters (Base)
Draw Period
Daily
Active Tiers
6
GP Accrual
92 draws (~quarterly)
GP Share
100/438 = 22.8%
Yield Ceilings
ETH + Derivatives on Aave
55 poolsCurrent TVL
$10.71B
Current Yield
2.40%
Aave 0.082% + Staking 2.32%
Period Avg TVL
$13.51B
365 days of data
Period Avg Yield
2.68%
Range: 1.42% – 4.93%
BTC + Derivatives on Aave
16 poolsCurrent TVL
$5.55B
Current Yield
0.017%
Aave 0.0052% + Staking 0.012%
Period Avg TVL
$6.76B
365 days of data
Period Avg Yield
0.012%
Range: 0.0036% – 0.026%
Stables on Aave
79 poolsCurrent TVL
$9.05B
Current Yield
1.91%
Aave 1.33% + Staking 0.582%
Period Avg TVL
$4.48B
365 days of data
Period Avg Yield
3.67%
Range: 1.84% – 6.31%
Key Takeaways
- sUSDe is the highest-yield asset: ~5.63% from Ethena's delta-neutral basis trade, roughly 2.1× higher than ETH staking and 2× higher than Aave stablecoin lending.
- ETH + derivatives is the most reliable yield source: ~2.68%, dominated by staking rewards that are largely independent of Aave lending demand.
- A 40/30/20/10 ETH/sUSDe/LBTC/Stables mix yields ~3.11% blended, requiring ~$279M TVL for a $500K quarterly grand prize.
- LBTC unlocks BTC-denominated PLS: ~0.408% from Lombard/Babylon staking, 39× higher than plain BTC's Aave lending yield (~0.010%).
- Stablecoin Aave lending yields are compressing: current rates (~1.33%) are below the period average (~2.64%), making sUSDe increasingly attractive.
- Multi-asset composition is key: diversifying across yield sources reduces dependence on any single protocol and lowers the TVL threshold for meaningful prizes.
Limitations
- Not holistic. This dashboard covers Aave V3 across all chains and does not represent the full landscape of available on-chain yield.
- Limited lookback. Historical data spans a maximum of 1 year, which may not capture full market cycles or longer-term yield trends.
- Excludes other blue-chip lending markets. Protocols such as Euler and Morpho offer competitive lending rates but are not included in this analysis.
- Excludes higher-risk stablecoin yield. Incentive campaigns, points programs, and liquidity mining on newer protocols can push stablecoin yields significantly higher than what Aave lending alone provides, but carry additional smart-contract and sustainability risk.